COVID-19 Impact Survey Results - CFA Montréal members predict that Canada will be in recession for less than one year

An in-house survey of CFA charterholders from CFA Montréal regarding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic reveals, among other things, that 60% of respondents expect the recession to last less than one year in Canada, while 57% are of the same view regarding the recession in the United States.

“The results of the survey confirm that the financial sector remains very active, with almost 80% of our members working full time from home due to the pandemic. Even if they think it is unlikely that Canada will experience deflation as has occurred in Japan, almost half our members will nevertheless be reviewing their approaches, whether with regard to risk management, asset allocation or portfolio rebalancing,” said Carl Robert, CFA, President of CFA Montreal.

According to CFA Montreal members, shares in the information technology (46%), healthcare (41%), financial (35%) and basic consumption (31%) sectors will be most attractive in the short term. Meanwhile, assets in the real estate (35%), fixed income (33%), private equity (30%) and hedge fund (26%) categories are likely to suffer the most negative impacts in the long term.

Click here to access the survey results.

Survey highlights¹

• 44% of respondents anticipate a recession of 6 to 12 months in Canada, while 25% think it will last between 12 and 18 months;
• 39% of respondents expect a recession of 6 to 12 months in the United States, while 29% think it will last between 12 and 18 months;
• More than 78% of respondents believe the American stock market will not recover its current losses for another 12 to 24 months;
• 65% are of the opinion that Asia will emerge most quickly from the global recession, followed by North America (34%);
• 72% anticipate that the best opportunities in the short term are in the equity markets, followed by the fixed income (27%) and currency markets (22%);
• 90% do not foresee a closure of stock exchanges during the crisis.

The survey was conducted online by CFA Montréal among its 2,900 members between April 2 and April 13, 2020, and 306 of them responded. The margin of error of the survey is 5%, 19 times out of 20.

Media mentions

Finance et Investissement - April 23, 2020: La récession durerait moins d'un an

Conseiller.ca - 23 avril 2020: Une récession brève ou durable

Avantages.ca - 23 avril 2020: COVID-19 : peut-on éviter des dommages permanents à l’économie?

Le TVA Nouvelles 12h du 23 avril 2020 - 21'30'' à 22'38''

98,5FM - Mario Langlois En direct 21 h 29- April, 23 2020

Le Devoir - April 24, 2020

¹ Since participants could choose more than one response to certain questions and the figures are rounded, total percentages do not necessarily equal 100 in all cases.