Last chance to buy tickets to hear Mr. Philip Tetlock speak on forecasting and to get his book!

Can we forecast geopolitical and macro-economic events?

What is fascinating and disturbing about this question is not the IF but the HOW.

In 2005, Phil Tetlock published a landmark book about our ability to forecast political events “Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know?”​. Tetlock tracked 28,000 forecasts made by 284 experts over 18 years and concluded that, for each of them, a random decision process would have performed just as well.

The US Department of Intelligence, who relies on political and other forecasts, took notice and launched in 2011 a four year project ‘Good Judgement Project’ aimed at demonstrating if we can forecast important events in different fields of interests. Five universities with a total of 15,000 participants competed against a control group of experts on over 500 questions of geopolitical and macroeconomic interests. The contest was easily won by the University of Pennsylvania project under Tetlock’s leadership who identified a group of super forecasters..

Who are they?

What makes them super forecasters?

Philip Tetlock in the news : The Economist & The Wall Street Journal

PHILIP E. TETLOCK  Annenberg University Professor University of Pennsylvania

 

A free copy of his latest book,

Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction,

will be given to all participants